The Political Bell Curve

The bell curve is a shape often used to represent the distribution of opinions or behaviors. In elections, it provides a compelling way to understand why voting is critical and how it can influence the political landscape.

At the peak of the curve is where the majority of voters opinions lie. This represents the collective will of most people. The edges of the curve represent the extreme or minority viewpoints, which while valid, may not reflect the desires of most people.

Unfortunately, it is the people from the edges that generally go to the polls for the primaries. There they tend to nominate "fringe" candidates that will move forward to the general elections. As a result the majority of votersd are asked to select between "fringe" candidates that most likely do not represent the majority points of view. It becomes a choice between the lesser of two evils. This is hardly "democratic".

When voter turnout is high, the curve remains balanced and the collective majority shapes the outcome. However when turnout is low, the bell curve shifts towards one side or the other, allowing the extremes to dominate.  

Low Voter Turnout: In many primaries, particularly in off-cycle or less competetive races, turnout can be relatively low. This gives more weight to motivated, often more ideologically extreme voters. This leads to nominating fringe candidates that appeal to a small but highly engage base.

Party Base Influence: Primaries are typically more about appealing to a party's base rather than the majority general electorate. This often leads to the rise of candidates with extreme or unconventional views because they are able to energize and mobilize a particular faction of their party.

Democracy seems to work best when there is high voter turnout typically because there is more mass in the high part of the bell curve making the fringes less meaningful to the outcome.

Perhaps Ranked Choice Voting (RVC) might minimize having extremist candidates at the general election. Because voters to rank candidate in order of preference, RCV encourages candidates to appeal to a broader base of voters.

1. Broader Appeal: Because candidayes must consider that they may need to secure a second or third-choice vote to win, they will be lead to more moderate positions that appeal to more voters
   
   
2. Less Negative Campaigning: Since a candidate may nneed to appear to a second-choice voter, they have incentive not to harshly attack other opponents.
   
   
3. Moeration in Governance: Elected officials who win through RCVmay feel a mandate to govern with a more balanced perspective having won from a broader based electorate.

While RVC has the potential to moderate political extremes, its effectivness depends on factors such as political culture, voter participation  and how well the system is understood.