King Donald - Revised

Recent actions by Donald Trump reminds me of King George back in colonial days. As the Declaration of Independence outlined the wrongs committed by The King which led to the founding of our nation, so Mr Trump could be accused of similar wrongs.

The Declaration of Independencs says, "He [King George] has endeavoured to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass otherds to encourage their migration hither; and raising the conditions of new Appropriation of Lands". That sounds to me like how Mr Trump is obstructing immigration; especially over our Southern border. His actions to eliminate the right of citizenship by birth also seem wrongful.

The Declaration also says, "He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries". Mr Trump  has loaded the Supreme Court with justices who have recently said that he cannot be tried for crimes he may commit as "official acts". This has enabled him to break the law by firing several Inspector's General in violation of the 30 days notice required by law. In his previous administration, he also fired several Attorney's General because they disagreed with hime. He also failed to appoint any members to the Federal Merit Systems Protection Board; thus denying employees and whistelblowers their protection under the law. 

The Declaration says.'...for cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world". Mr Trump has turned US trade policy upside down. He has engaged in trade wars between the United States and China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, South Korea, Japan and even Britain itself as well as other random nations. He has railed against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement. He has broken alliances with other nations and withdrawn from the Paris Accord and numerous other treaties.

The Declaration goes on to say, "He has excited domestic insurrection amongst us". Mr Trump supported (if not ordered) the January 6th rebellion and has suggested that he would use federal troops to quell demonstrations. He has granted pardons to most of those who were convicted of crimes related to the insurrection. He has made statements and remarks that have actually inflammed this and other demonstrations.

The bottom line is that Mr Trump is not a King, but he has behaved much like one. By stacking carious departments and agencies with his political cronies, he has behaved like a typical totalitarian dictator. He has actively supported division amongst the people. He has violated the Constitution by writing many Presidential Orders which are not sanctioned by the Constitution nor with the advice of Congress. Writing laws is the job of the Congress (albeit itself currently horribly divided). The President's job is merely to execute the laws passed by Congress. He cannot make law. He cannot and shuld not have it "his" way. He does not own the country like he owned his businesses. He cannot simply say "you're fired" when things don't go his way.

The Political Bell Curve

The bell curve is a shape often used to represent the distribution of opinions or behaviors. In elections, it provides a compelling way to understand why voting is critical and how it can influence the political landscape.

At the peak of the curve is where the majority of voters opinions lie. This represents the collective will of most people. The edges of the curve represent the extreme or minority viewpoints, which while valid, may not reflect the desires of most people.

Unfortunately, it is the people from the edges that generally go to the polls for the primaries. There they tend to nominate "fringe" candidates that will move forward to the general elections. As a result the majority of votersd are asked to select between "fringe" candidates that most likely do not represent the majority points of view. It becomes a choice between the lesser of two evils. This is hardly "democratic".

When voter turnout is high, the curve remains balanced and the collective majority shapes the outcome. However when turnout is low, the bell curve shifts towards one side or the other, allowing the extremes to dominate.  

Low Voter Turnout: In many primaries, particularly in off-cycle or less competetive races, turnout can be relatively low. This gives more weight to motivated, often more ideologically extreme voters. This leads to nominating fringe candidates that appeal to a small but highly engage base.

Party Base Influence: Primaries are typically more about appealing to a party's base rather than the majority general electorate. This often leads to the rise of candidates with extreme or unconventional views because they are able to energize and mobilize a particular faction of their party.

Democracy seems to work best when there is high voter turnout typically because there is more mass in the high part of the bell curve making the fringes less meaningful to the outcome.

Perhaps Ranked Choice Voting (RVC) might minimize having extremist candidates at the general election. Because voters to rank candidate in order of preference, RCV encourages candidates to appeal to a broader base of voters.

1. Broader Appeal: Because candidayes must consider that they may need to secure a second or third-choice vote to win, they will be lead to more moderate positions that appeal to more voters
   
   
2. Less Negative Campaigning: Since a candidate may nneed to appear to a second-choice voter, they have incentive not to harshly attack other opponents.
   
   
3. Moeration in Governance: Elected officials who win through RCVmay feel a mandate to govern with a more balanced perspective having won from a broader based electorate.

While RVC has the potential to moderate political extremes, its effectivness depends on factors such as political culture, voter participation  and how well the system is understood.

NOT a Mandate

Despite what President Trump may think, he was NOT given a mandate in his election. He won by one of the narrowist margins in history. A margin of only 0.15% of the popular vote is most certainly not a charter to do anything he wants. That is only a tiny fraction of the "landslide" 22.6% margin of 1964.

Not only that, he also did not get a majority of the voyes either. He only received 49.8* of all popular votes that were cast. Compare that with George W. Bush with 50.3% in 2004, Barrack Obama with 52.9% in 2008 and 51% in 2012, or Joe Biden with 51.3% in 2020. Even when consoidering the Electoral College votes, Trump only received 6 more votes than Harris; 312 to 306.

Yet Trump and his allies are claiming a "landslide" and a "blowout". From their telling, Trump's "sweeping" and "historic" victory has given MAGA a "powerful mandate" to govern. Everyone's vote counted, but the real outcome came down to the choices of just a tiny sliver of swing state voters. NOT a mandate from my perspective.