What will happen if President Trump actually does lift social distancing and re-open the economy?
Without massive testing, infected people who don't show symptoms will leave their isolation and go out to spread the virus all over again. I predict DISASTER in the form of a post-pandemic pandemic.
Why does that man not listen to his advisors?
Thursday, April 16, 2020
Monday, April 13, 2020
Why Do We Need Testing?
Widespread testing is the ONLY way to effective stop the COVID-19 virus. This is because waiting until symptoms appear, allows each infected person to infect others for at least 14 days.
We know that ONLY the infected persons need to be isolated in order to stop the spread of the virus. So, just lock everyone down just to be safe. This approach simply won't work because there need to be exception for essential services, etc. That will devastate our economy and those persons who are exempted could easily carry the virus without any symptoms.
So how do we detect and isolate the infected persons without isolating everyone else with them? Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and others have shown us how -- they've done massive testing to identify those with the virus before they show any symptoms. Then, they did comprehensive contact tracing to identify all those with whome they might have made contact.
In the USA we are not doing that. Essentially, the only people who are being tested here are those who present symptoms and then possibly others who they have contacted. This approach simply does not work. Consider the numbers...
Consider only one person who doesn't show symptoms and makes contact with 5 others every day for 14 days. And, assume that on each day one of the contacts became infected. But, also assume the newly infected persons also meet 5 others and infect only one of them. At the end of the first day, the original person would have infected one other. At the send of the second day, each of the infected people would infect one more giving a total of 4. One the third day, the 4 would double the num,ber again so that by the end of 14 days a total of 8192 people would have een infected and most of them would show no symptoms.
Being much more conservative, let's assume that the ratio of infection is less than 1:1 per day. How about if the rate of infection was only 1 every three days. Then the original person would only be responsible for infecting a total of 16 others. But when multiplied by something like 10,000 undetected original cases, total or the entire population could look like 160,000 undetected infections. And this in only 14 days.
Looking at the numbers, it makes it absolutely clear that to keep our economy stable and to stop the virus from spreading, massive testing is mandatory for controlling the spread of this virus.
Several members of Predient Trump's task force have recommended massive testing. Most notable of these are Anthony Fauci MD, NIAID Director and Robert R. Redfield MD, CDC Director. Why have teeir recommendations not been implemented? Who or what is stopping the testing? It is imperative that we identify those who are infected but symptom free before they spread the virus any further.
We know that ONLY the infected persons need to be isolated in order to stop the spread of the virus. So, just lock everyone down just to be safe. This approach simply won't work because there need to be exception for essential services, etc. That will devastate our economy and those persons who are exempted could easily carry the virus without any symptoms.
So how do we detect and isolate the infected persons without isolating everyone else with them? Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and others have shown us how -- they've done massive testing to identify those with the virus before they show any symptoms. Then, they did comprehensive contact tracing to identify all those with whome they might have made contact.
In the USA we are not doing that. Essentially, the only people who are being tested here are those who present symptoms and then possibly others who they have contacted. This approach simply does not work. Consider the numbers...
Consider only one person who doesn't show symptoms and makes contact with 5 others every day for 14 days. And, assume that on each day one of the contacts became infected. But, also assume the newly infected persons also meet 5 others and infect only one of them. At the end of the first day, the original person would have infected one other. At the send of the second day, each of the infected people would infect one more giving a total of 4. One the third day, the 4 would double the num,ber again so that by the end of 14 days a total of 8192 people would have een infected and most of them would show no symptoms.
Being much more conservative, let's assume that the ratio of infection is less than 1:1 per day. How about if the rate of infection was only 1 every three days. Then the original person would only be responsible for infecting a total of 16 others. But when multiplied by something like 10,000 undetected original cases, total or the entire population could look like 160,000 undetected infections. And this in only 14 days.
Looking at the numbers, it makes it absolutely clear that to keep our economy stable and to stop the virus from spreading, massive testing is mandatory for controlling the spread of this virus.
Several members of Predient Trump's task force have recommended massive testing. Most notable of these are Anthony Fauci MD, NIAID Director and Robert R. Redfield MD, CDC Director. Why have teeir recommendations not been implemented? Who or what is stopping the testing? It is imperative that we identify those who are infected but symptom free before they spread the virus any further.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Testing for COVID-19
ONLY with testing can those who have the virus but show no symptoms be identified. To stop the spread of any epidemic, the key factor is to identify those who are infected.
If we are to find a good example of how to do it, we could look at Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. In Korea's case as soon as they had the genetic sequencing for COVID-19 they developed a test. Then they applied that test randomly to their entire population. When infected cases were identified, they went further to trace contact with the infected person and tested them. The bottom line was that they did NOT shut down any businesses nor quarantine anyone who didn't first test positive.
Then they went further by gathering statistics. And when they found "hot spots", they tested them more heavily; again at random.
It is very important to note that at no time wwas there economy affected. Contrast that with the absurd wat that our government insists on not testing anyone until they show possible symptoms. Plus the dracomian way that people are shuttered at home and the economy is effected trashed.
If we are to find a good example of how to do it, we could look at Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. In Korea's case as soon as they had the genetic sequencing for COVID-19 they developed a test. Then they applied that test randomly to their entire population. When infected cases were identified, they went further to trace contact with the infected person and tested them. The bottom line was that they did NOT shut down any businesses nor quarantine anyone who didn't first test positive.
Then they went further by gathering statistics. And when they found "hot spots", they tested them more heavily; again at random.
It is very important to note that at no time wwas there economy affected. Contrast that with the absurd wat that our government insists on not testing anyone until they show possible symptoms. Plus the dracomian way that people are shuttered at home and the economy is effected trashed.
Friday, April 3, 2020
COVID-19
The USA was completely unprepared for COVID-19. And, we were late in recognizing the threat.
Didn't our government learn anything from the SARS and MERS epidemics? Didn't they think something like that could happen again? Why were they not prepared for this pandemic. Now COVID-19 is here and we have been caught totally unprepared. We still haven't really come to grasp our situation. And, to be sure, there will be other pandemics in the future. It is not a question of whether another pandemic will occur, but when.
When COVID-19 emerged, China, Korea and other countries were very quick to react. They rapidly quarantined infected areas. The people immediately started to wear masks. And massive testing and contact tracing was imposed. We waited too long. By the time our government reacted, the virus had already spread to many locations across the country. The "genie was already out of the bottle". By the time we reacted, the virus was already out of control and had spread far and wide.
To keep the virus from spreading further, "social distancing" is being used in an attempt to keep the virus from spreading further. But, social distancing isn't comlete isolation and therefore isn't totally effective. However, in a democracy, locking everyone down would be totalitarian and is completely out of the question. And, as we can easily see, even social distancing has had a devastating effect on our jobs, our economy and the availability of essential services. Obvbiously, by isolating everyone we would surely kill our economy?
Infected people need to be isolated and their illness cared for. At the same time, people need to have jobs, provide services and keep the economy going. The simple fact is that the ONLY people who really need to be isolated are those who are actually infected. And that includes those who have the virus but show no symptoms. So, the problem comes down to finding those who are infected so they can be isolated and treated. The rest of the porulation could then go about their business and keep the economy from collapsing.
Identifying those who are infected requires testing. But, testing is a huge problem by itself. You simply can't test everyone! To test the entire population would require more than 300 million tests. And, to catch new infections on those who tested OK previously, those tests would need to be repeated frequently for at least the estimated time for the virus to incubate and probably longer. So, massive testing of the population is impossible.
If we can't identify those who are infected, a complete locakdown would be needed to stop the spread of the virus. But as we previously said, to do so would destroy our economy. Besides, we are a democracy. We don't want a totalitarian solution. We can't do a total lockdown without killing our economy. We can't test the entire population and we can't do a total lockdown. And once we have knocked down the number of infections, how do we prevent a flareup again until a vaccine becomes available. Somehow, we need to identify infected people and also get the uninfected people back to work. And, we have to do it without destroying our democracy.
So, how can we make certain when people are allowed to go back to work, that infected people are identified, isolated and treated. I believe that testing is the key. One way to find infected people would be to test them as they return to work. Many employers now require drug screening and background checks before offering work. Why not do virus screening as well. If you want a job, you get tested for the virus. Such a program could easily idenify infected workers and would certainly be more effective that massive testing or massive quarantines. It could actually save our economy.
Such a testing program would be much cheaper and more effective than a massive testing program. It would also prevent the collapse of our economy. But, it would need to be free because thare are many people who don't have insurance or are living paycheck to paycheck.
.
Statistics show that self-testing can yield just as good results as having professionals administer the tests. Self-testing would reduce the need for professional staff and their protective gear (which in short supply). Professional staff could then focus on caring for those patients who are already known to be sick.
Tbis leaves me with the following unanswered questions:
1. Why did our government not plan for an inevitable pandemic?
2. Why did they wait until the virus had already spread befor reacting?
3. Why are they advocating massive (totalitarian) isolation and destroying the economy?
4. Why don't they focus on better testing to find those who are infected?
5. Why don't they have a plan to save our economy?
Didn't our government learn anything from the SARS and MERS epidemics? Didn't they think something like that could happen again? Why were they not prepared for this pandemic. Now COVID-19 is here and we have been caught totally unprepared. We still haven't really come to grasp our situation. And, to be sure, there will be other pandemics in the future. It is not a question of whether another pandemic will occur, but when.
When COVID-19 emerged, China, Korea and other countries were very quick to react. They rapidly quarantined infected areas. The people immediately started to wear masks. And massive testing and contact tracing was imposed. We waited too long. By the time our government reacted, the virus had already spread to many locations across the country. The "genie was already out of the bottle". By the time we reacted, the virus was already out of control and had spread far and wide.
To keep the virus from spreading further, "social distancing" is being used in an attempt to keep the virus from spreading further. But, social distancing isn't comlete isolation and therefore isn't totally effective. However, in a democracy, locking everyone down would be totalitarian and is completely out of the question. And, as we can easily see, even social distancing has had a devastating effect on our jobs, our economy and the availability of essential services. Obvbiously, by isolating everyone we would surely kill our economy?
Infected people need to be isolated and their illness cared for. At the same time, people need to have jobs, provide services and keep the economy going. The simple fact is that the ONLY people who really need to be isolated are those who are actually infected. And that includes those who have the virus but show no symptoms. So, the problem comes down to finding those who are infected so they can be isolated and treated. The rest of the porulation could then go about their business and keep the economy from collapsing.
Identifying those who are infected requires testing. But, testing is a huge problem by itself. You simply can't test everyone! To test the entire population would require more than 300 million tests. And, to catch new infections on those who tested OK previously, those tests would need to be repeated frequently for at least the estimated time for the virus to incubate and probably longer. So, massive testing of the population is impossible.
If we can't identify those who are infected, a complete locakdown would be needed to stop the spread of the virus. But as we previously said, to do so would destroy our economy. Besides, we are a democracy. We don't want a totalitarian solution. We can't do a total lockdown without killing our economy. We can't test the entire population and we can't do a total lockdown. And once we have knocked down the number of infections, how do we prevent a flareup again until a vaccine becomes available. Somehow, we need to identify infected people and also get the uninfected people back to work. And, we have to do it without destroying our democracy.
So, how can we make certain when people are allowed to go back to work, that infected people are identified, isolated and treated. I believe that testing is the key. One way to find infected people would be to test them as they return to work. Many employers now require drug screening and background checks before offering work. Why not do virus screening as well. If you want a job, you get tested for the virus. Such a program could easily idenify infected workers and would certainly be more effective that massive testing or massive quarantines. It could actually save our economy.
Such a testing program would be much cheaper and more effective than a massive testing program. It would also prevent the collapse of our economy. But, it would need to be free because thare are many people who don't have insurance or are living paycheck to paycheck.
.
Statistics show that self-testing can yield just as good results as having professionals administer the tests. Self-testing would reduce the need for professional staff and their protective gear (which in short supply). Professional staff could then focus on caring for those patients who are already known to be sick.
Tbis leaves me with the following unanswered questions:
1. Why did our government not plan for an inevitable pandemic?
2. Why did they wait until the virus had already spread befor reacting?
3. Why are they advocating massive (totalitarian) isolation and destroying the economy?
4. Why don't they focus on better testing to find those who are infected?
5. Why don't they have a plan to save our economy?
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